On July 29th, the United States government announced that an agreement had finally been reached on new gas mileage standards for cars and light-duty trucks. The previous rules called for new cars to average 35.5 miles per gallon by the year 2016. Under the new mandate, automakers will have just 9 more years to go from that figure to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. The plan calls for a review in 2018 to make sure that the goal is feasible with the technologies that are available or planned by then. If a determination is made at that time that 54.5 mpg isn't practical within seven years from that date, changes could be made then.
Does that mean every new car or light-duty truck sold in America will get that mileage? No. It means that each automakers entire lineup must average that figure. In other words, for a fictional automaker called ABC Company, the math might look like this:
Let's say ABC Company makes two different car models in that year with sales split right down the middle. One gets 49.5 miles per gallon and one gets 59.5 miles per gallon according to government standard measurements. The average of their fleet for the year would be right on the button at 54.5 mpg. That meets the minimum requirement. If they introduced a third model, it would have to at least meet that 54.5 figure or the average would slip below the mandate.
The government says that enacting those standards means that the average car-owner will save $8000 in fuel costs every year. That's a substantial chunk of change. It can be expected though that some of the technologies that carmakers use to achieve the mileage goals laid out in the new plan will cost them more than conventional cars do today, so some of that first year's savings might be eaten up in a higher sticker price.
The rule isn't finalized yet, but has been agreed to by the federal government, the state of California (which had the toughest state rules in the nation) and 13 automakers including: Ford, Chrysler, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Kia, Jaguar/Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Hyundai, BMW and Volvo. The goal is to have the details written up by September of this year and the final version of the plan enacted in 2012.
You'll recall that when the U.S. bailed out the auto industry during the last days of the Bush administration and the early days of Obama's tenure in office, one of the preconditions was that automakers agree to increase fuel efficiency. This new standard defines just how much more efficient cars need to get.
As we've mentioned in previous posts, we expect a wide variety of electric and electric assist vehicles to be rolled out in the next year. Public reaction and acceptance of these new vehicles may help determine how big a role electric vehicles play in achieving the 2025 mileage goal.